The human tragedy in Ukraine is the main concern and many people are suffering from this conflict. It is early to assess the impact of the Russian Federation’s military offensive in Ukraine, though it represents a major downside risk for international tourism that could delay the sector’s already weak and uneven recovery.
The conflict could slow the recovery despite the lifting or easing of travel restrictions by many destinations. A total of 12 countries had lifted all COVID-19-related restrictions as of 24 March 2022.The military offensive risks hampering the return of confidence to global travel. The US and Asian source markets could be particularly impacted, especially regarding travel to Europe, as these markets are historically more risk-averse.
As source markets, Russia and Ukraine represent a combined 3% of global spending on international tourism as of 2020. A prolonged conflict could translate into a loss of US$ 14 billion in tourism receipts globally in 2022.
In 2019, Russian spending on travel abroad reached US$ 36 billion, and Ukrainian spending US$ 8.5 billion. In 2020, these values were down to US$ 9.1 billion and US$ 4.7 billion, respectively.
Russia and Ukraine account for 4% of international tourist arrivals in Europe but only 1% of Europe’s international tourism receipts. The importance of both markets is significant for neighboring countries, but also for European sun and sea destinations. The Russian market gained significant weight during the crisis in long-haul destinations such as Maldives, Seychelles, and Sri Lanka.
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